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pWin means probability of win. In MERIT, it gives your team a structured way to review how strong a pursuit looks before you commit more capture time and proposal effort. MERIT can draft a pWin score for a pursuit, but the score is not saved automatically. You review the result, adjust it if your team has better context, and approve it before it appears on the opportunity.

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When to use pWin

Run pWin when a pursuit has enough information to support a real qualification discussion. You can use it early to spot gaps, then recompute later as the pursuit becomes more mature. Good times to run or recompute pWin include:
  • After you finish the first pass through the Qualification fields in the Gate Tracker
  • Before a go/no-go or bid/no-bid discussion
  • After major pursuit details change
  • After your team adds new customer, competitor, teaming, pricing, staffing, or past performance context
pWin is most useful when it starts a conversation. Use the score and rationale to focus your capture discussion, not to replace your team’s judgment.

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Open the pWin calculator

You can open pWin from two places:

Opportunity overview

Open a pursuit workspace, go to Overview, and click Calculate pWin. If a score already exists, the button may show Recompute pWin.

Gate Tracker

Open Gate Tracker, go to Fields, and use the pWin field action when you are working through qualification or capture inputs.

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Calculate and review

1

Start the calculation

Click Calculate pWin. MERIT opens the pWin calculator and starts drafting a score from the available pursuit context.
2

Wait for the result

While MERIT is working, the panel shows Computing pWin…. You can close the panel and return later; the result will be available when the calculation finishes.
3

Review the score

The result includes a numeric score, a strategic band, an overall rationale, and a factor-by-factor breakdown. Read the rationale carefully before approving.
4

Check assumptions and missing data

If MERIT had to make assumptions or found missing information, review those notes before deciding whether the score is ready to approve.
The score is a draft until you approve it. If the result does not reflect what your team knows, you can reject it, update the pursuit, and run pWin again.

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Override a factor

Sometimes your team has context that is not fully captured in MERIT yet. When that happens, you can adjust individual factor scores before approving. To override a factor:
  1. Move the factor slider to the score your team believes is more accurate.
  2. Add a short rationale explaining why you changed it.
  3. Review the updated overall score.
  4. Click Approve with overrides when you are ready.
MERIT requires a rationale for each override so the approved score has a clear decision trail.

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Approve or reject

Use Approve to save the score to the opportunity. Once approved, the score appears on the opportunity overview and can be used elsewhere in the pursuit workspace. Use Reject if the draft is not useful or if you want to update the pursuit before trying again. Rejecting a draft does not change the opportunity’s saved pWin score.

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Recompute when information changes

pWin should be refreshed when the pursuit changes in a meaningful way. For example, recompute after your team updates Gate Tracker details, adds important capture context, or changes the opportunity information used to support the score. If MERIT flags an approved score as stale, open the calculator and run Recompute pWin to generate a fresh draft.

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Improve the usefulness of pWin

pWin works best when the pursuit workspace has enough context for MERIT to evaluate. Before running it, make sure the Gate Tracker reflects what your team currently knows. Focus especially on keeping these areas current:
  • Opportunity basics and key dates
  • Customer and agency context
  • Competitive notes
  • Teaming and staffing context
  • Past performance notes
  • Pricing or investment assumptions
  • Win strategy and capture rationale
pWin is an advisory tool. Treat the output as a structured recommendation to review with your team before making pursuit decisions.